Monday 2 January 2017

Let's Learn Math Logic

Hye everyone
How your new year
Have you already planned target for 2017???
If not u must set now
Let's learn math 
Small part in Math Logic

Logic

Negation (¬) = not @ it is not the case that…
Example: Emily does not eat nasi lemak

p
¬p
T
F
F
T

Conjuction (^) = and @ sometimes “but”  p^q
Example Emily eat nasi lemak and Frank eats nasi dagang

p
q
p^q
T
T
T
T
F
F
F
T
F
F
F
F

Disconjuction (˅) = or
Example: Emily eats nasi lemak or Frank eat nasi dagang
p
q
p˅q
T
T
T
T
F
T
F
T
T
F
F
F

Implication (→) = “If …then…”   p→q
Example: If Emily eats nasi lemak, then Frank eats nasi dagang

p
q
p→q
T
T
T
T
F
F
F
T
T
F
F
T

Biconditional (↔) : “….if and only if…”  p↔q¬
Example: Emily eats nasi lemak if and only if Frank eats nasi dagang.

p
q
p↔q
T
T
T
T
F
F
F
T
F
F
F
T

Logical Equivalence : The laws of Logic

1) Logically equivalent : ¬¬p

p
¬p
¬¬p
T
F
T
F
T
F

2) Tautology = last answer in truth table must be true

3) Contradiction = last answer in truth table must be false


CONDITIONAL
p→q
CONVERSE
q→p
INVERSE
¬p→¬q
CONTRAPOSITIVE
¬q→¬p

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Part 1
See u again

To be continued

Sunday 1 January 2017

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Continue From Happy New Year

Issue to be considered when formulating quantitative models.

1) Accuracy of forecasts.

  • Determining the degree of accuracy of the forecasts remains the top most consideration among the forecasters.
2) Determine the Forecast Horizon.
  • Forecast Horizon is time in the future at which the forecasts are required. 
4 Categories of horizon

1) Long term forecasts
  • Looks at several year of forecast
2) Medium term forecasts
  • 6 months until 2 years
3) Short term forecasts
  • 1 month until 6 months 
4) Immediate term forecasts
  • Less than one month
Factors to be considered for successful forecasting practices.

1) TimeFrame
  • Refer to Forecast Horizon.
2) Choice of technique
  • Technique should be selected so that the underlying assumption matches the characteristics of the data. 
3) Cost consideration
  • Cost consideration associated with every formulation and development of the forecastin models.
  • Example: labour cost, cost of testing computer program.
4) Availability of data
  • Long series of data would enable the modeller to obtain accurate and reliable model estimates.
Stages in Forecasting procedure

1) Determination of the purpose and objective forecasting exercise
2) Selection of relevant theory
3) Collection of the data
4) Getting to know your data
5) Initial model estimation
6) Model evaluation and revision
7) Initial forecast presentation
8) Final revision
9) Forecast distribution
10) Establish monitoring system

Thanks for your attention.
I hope u all can understand
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See u again

Happy New Year

Hye guys,
Happy New Year to all of you
Nice to meet you again

Let's learn some know on your new year

Forecasting
Planning
The whole process of developing the necessary methods to generate the future values which subsequently can be used as input for the goals and objectives of the firm.
Concerned with the setting of goals and objectives and with developing alternatives action that are matches generally to management control.

Uses of FORECASTING

1) In production planning:
    Identify the needs, allocate resources and establish goals.
2) Sales planning:
    Determine the future demand of goods.
3) Estimating cash flow:
    Enable the firm to operate more efficient. Prevent from more loss and gain more profit.
4) Inventory control:
    To maintain the balance between level of stock and demand of the product.

Types of Forecasting technigue
There are two types of forecasting technigue

Quantitative (statistical)
-Projective method (univariate)
-Causal method (econometric)

Qualitative (judgemental)

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